Economic Reports: The Pulse of the Market
Economic growth or contraction plays a critical role in the trends of the market place general. As defined by Investopedia.com, Economic growth is an increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared from one period of time to another. Economic growth can be measured in nominal terms, which include inflation, or in real terms, which are adjusted for inflation.
Monitoring, or keeping our finger on the pulse of the market, can play a very important role in the trading decisions we make and in the strategies that we may choose to implement. In this time of increased uncertainty and economic downturn, it becomes more critical than ever to have our ear to the ground, to know what is happening, and moreover, why it is happening.
Under the current administration, government policy and implementations appear to change nearly by the moment. If we are alerted to these changes, it will potentially allow us to take advantage of the various legislation and mandates. It is important for us to know that our economy is growing, and it is equally important for us to understand where the growth will be coming from. Will legislation allow for growth in the private sector, or in the public sector? Will it promote corporate growth, or corporate contraction?
Among other things, many believe that sustained economic growth and stimulus must be ascertained through the promotion of private investment, lower corporate tax rates, and smaller capital gains taxes. Others come from a standpoint of larger social programs, infrastructure buildouts, and bigger government programs as a bottom-up approach to help stimulate the economy.
Other matters that might concern us are an increasingly aging population and whether those types of demographics will contribute to an economic demise. Some of those concerns include health benefits, social security, and housing.
Will we have social security? This has been a monster topic, hotly debated, for decades now, yet nobody has really offered up any viable solutions. What will be the costs if social security went belly-up? What would be the costs if it were sustained?
Housing! I think that it is safe to say that this issue has been front-and-centre throughout 2008 and on into 2009. We are definitely in uncharted territory, after a failing housing market, we began to experience an increase in the foreclosure rate. In the United States, there has been a precedent set through the establishment of government programs that will allow the refinance of mortgages at new terms, or to have bankruptcy judges determine if, not only interest on loans should be modified, but additionally, whether or not the principle of the loan should be modified. Should we follow this in Canada? Agree or disagree?
Bailouts, moral hazard, Ponzi schemes, Congressional tax evasion, undocumented workers—somebody stop me! Whether you are for or against any of the aforementioned and inclined to believe that Program A or Program B is either the best thing since sliced bread, or the worst idea since the first person who considered careening over Niagara Falls in a barrel, we cannot let our personal views cloud what is real; we cannot allow our ideals to affect our investment decisions. This is where the consistent monitoring of economic reports and the economic calendar come into play.
There are a series of economic reports that are advertised weekly for scrutiny by such market participants such as the Canadian government, the Bank of Canada, institutional investors, investment banks, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, analysts, floor traders, professional traders and the increasingly knowledgeable retail investor. These reports have the potential to be a forward look into the future, and make projections as to the robustness, or lack thereof, of the economy. These are the type of reports that are followed by the bigger market participants, allowing them to evaluate where they believe the economy may be headed. They are generally not looking to tomorrow’s market or to next week’s market, but are rather making their investment decisions based upon where they believe the market will be six to nine months down the road.
This gives us great reason to be following in their footsteps, achieving realizations of what is happening in the economy to help us make our investment decisions. Like it or not, the institutions are the stock market. We need to be sharp and nimble to compete in a very unforgiving and volatile investment environment. Therefore, we need to be in the ballpark ready to play ball and compete for the championship.
So, what is the mechanism and resource for access to these reports? It is the economic calendar. The economic calendar allows us the same transparency into the market afforded the big boys and girls. We can follow the results of the economic news events via this calendar day-to-day, week-to-week and month-to-month. The types of economic reports that we’ll find on this calendar are various inflationary reports, economic growth reports, energy reports, and employment reports, among many other results. They can be such a benefit to us as traders/investors, since they allow us to make a determination as to where we believe the economy is headed and which sectors of the markets will be most positively or adversely affected by their results. In this manner, we can select investment candidates by investigating those sectors of the markets and finding securities within those sectors. We can then watch that list for the right opportunity to enter a position.
Such a calendar for the United States can be accessed through WIA’s EDUTRADER software by clicking on Tools > Calendars > Economic.
For other global economies, Forex Facotry, www.forexfactory.com, is a reliable source for various economic calendars. Economic reports can be a vital and critical part of our investment decisions and knowledge base. An awareness of market and economic conditions can not only potentially enhance the way that we invest, but moreover, can enhance our lives by allowing us a deeper understanding as to why things are happening. Through that process, it has the ability to grant us an opportunity for more educated and valued decision making in many aspects of our lives. Whether it translates to mortgages, interest rates, inflation, deflation—a greater understanding of the economy through the study of economic reports will help us to position ourselves more effectively in all investment decisions.
We will better understand where we are headed as a nation and what those implications mean to us as individuals when we make the decision to become more informed. Knowing the choices available to us and possessing an in-depth understanding of these options makes us better-prepared to meet the challenges ahead.
